Switzerland vs Cape Verde: World Cup 2026 Odds | Polymarket Trade

Switzerland and Cape Verde represent two vastly different FIFA World Cup championship predictions on Polymarket. Switzerland, with a 1% implied probability, reflects a nation with strong football infrastructure, multiple world-class players, and a history of reaching major tournament knockout stages—most recently advancing to the World Cup semi-finals in 2022. Cape Verde, trading at essentially 0%, represents a smaller island nation with limited World Cup qualification history and less developed football infrastructure. While both markets ask the same fundamental question—will this nation win the tournament?—they occupy opposite ends of the perceived tournament quality spectrum. The 100-basis-point gap between Switzerland's 1% and Cape Verde's 0% probability reveals market conviction gradients. Switzerland's 1% price, while still extremely unlikely on an absolute basis, reflects serious consideration of plausible scenarios: injuries to top favorites, favorable group draws, or unexpected playoff upsets creating a deep run. Traders pricing Switzerland have assigned some tail-risk probability to victory paths. Conversely, Cape Verde's 0% (or <0.1%) represents near-absolute market rejection. This binary treatment signals that Cape Verde's tournament entry itself would be treated as ceremonial, with victory mathematics effectively closed in traders' view. These markets can diverge in subtle but important ways during tournament play. If Switzerland exits early, their YES holders would face maximal losses while other favorites gain percentage points; Cape Verde would remain near-zero. If tournament favorites stumble and Switzerland unexpectedly advances, their 1% token could spike—not because Cape Verde's chances improve, but because the broader landscape shifted. The two markets are negatively correlated only in the sense that all NO-tokens share one probability pool. Switzerland's breakthrough doesn't lift Cape Verde; it redistributes tail risk. Cape Verde's trajectory is mechanically determined: absent qualification or a genuine upset arc, their token trends toward 0% throughout the tournament. Readers tracking these markets should monitor key signals. For Switzerland: player injuries pre-tournament, group-stage draw, and early-match performance each move the 1% price materially (toward 2–3% on group wins, toward 0.5% on star absences). For Cape Verde: qualification status is paramount—if absent from the tournament, 0% treatment is simply appropriate. If qualified, any positive group result could spark marginal price interest. World Cup championship markets at sub-1% levels are primarily driven by extreme tail-risk pricing and information asymmetries rather than fundamental tournament structure shifts.