Haiti and Norway both appear in the 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets, with Haiti currently trading at 0% and Norway at 2%. Each market asks a straightforward question: will that nation win the tournament? On the surface, these markets seem disparate—Haiti represents a Caribbean outsider with limited World Cup history, while Norway is a European football nation with stronger qualification prospects. Yet they share a critical characteristic: both are extreme long-shots in a tournament where only one nation can claim victory and where a handful of traditional powerhouses (France, Argentina, England, Spain, Germany, Brazil) command most market attention and liquidity. The 2-percentage-point gap between Haiti (0%) and Norway (2%) reflects trader conviction more than raw probability. At these price levels, the market is essentially saying neither nation has a meaningful chance of winning. For context, competitive World Cup contenders—teams with strong qualifying records and historical tournament presence—typically trade between 5% and 15% or higher. The fact that both Haiti and Norway sit below 2% suggests traders are pricing in structural barriers: limited recent tournament experience, smaller player pools, lower investment in elite-level club development, and challenging draw assignments. The 0% on Haiti is particularly revealing; it implies the market sees virtually zero path to victory, while the 2% on Norway reflects a marginally higher estimate—perhaps accounting for Europa League-level clubs and stronger football infrastructure. These two markets are mutually exclusive events—only one World Cup winner emerges from 32 teams—yet they move in similar directions. A world-class upset would simultaneously boost the odds of both underdog nations, as traders would reassess the tournament's competitive landscape. Conversely, if early matches confirm that traditional favorites maintain dominance, both Haiti and Norway would likely trend downward further. The two markets are inversely correlated with the collective odds of top-10 favorites; when dominant teams gain conviction, outsiders lose it. Several factors will shape these markets over the coming year. For Haiti, watch qualifying performance and any surprise coaching changes. For Norway, monitor Champions League representation and whether elite players bolster the squad's profile. Both nations' Group Stage draw assignments—announced after qualifying—will matter significantly; favorable brackets could shift odds upward. Finally, major betting exchanges' liquidity patterns will signal whether smart money is rotating into underdog positions, potentially repricing both markets as the tournament approaches.