Both Haiti and Uzbekistan currently trade at 0% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, placing them among the most extreme long-shot markets on prediction exchanges. These markets reflect the consensus view that neither nation has realistically positioned itself for a tournament victory. Haiti, a Caribbean nation competing in CONCACAF qualification, and Uzbekistan, a Central Asian competitor in AFC qualification, represent fundamentally different regional contexts but similarly distant pathways to claiming world football's premier trophy. The 0% pricing on both markets signals near-total trader conviction in their non-victory. In prediction markets, a 0% price typically reflects either the absence of meaningful probability (fewer than 1-in-1000 odds in some models) or the practical trading floor where bid-ask spreads prevent meaningful positions. For both Haiti and Uzbekistan, this reflects genuine structural challenges: neither nation has historically demonstrated the playing depth, infrastructure investment, or competitive record required for World Cup triumph. Haiti's most recent World Cup appearance was 1974; Uzbekistan has never qualified. This historical gap creates a perception gap that 0% pricing essentially captures. The comparison reveals how distance from tournament contention plays out across different regions. A Haiti upset would require CONCACAF's typical powers (Mexico, United States, Canada, Costa Rica) to simultaneously falter while Haiti itself develops an implausibly competitive squad within the qualifying cycle. Uzbekistan faces a steeper path through an AFC region that includes established powers like Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Australia. These are largely uncorrelated scenarios—success for one nation does not structurally predict success for the other. However, both would require similar macro conditions: exceptional player recruitment or development, coaching excellence, and fortuitous tournament draws allowing small-nation advancement through knockout stages dominated by European and South American football. Observers watching these markets should monitor several concrete signals. For Haiti: CONCACAF Gold Cup or Nations League performance, roster development among Haitian diaspora players, and comparative investment in football infrastructure. For Uzbekistan: AFC qualification performance, regional tournament (Asian Cup) results, and the competitive level of Uzbek-based players in European leagues. Neither market is likely to move significantly unless a nation unexpectedly dominates its regional qualifying group, which would still leave the task of advancing through group play and knockout rounds against stronger continental opponents. The 0% floor may persist unless external factors—rule changes, structural shifts in World Cup qualification, or unprecedented regional upsets—meaningfully alter the underlying calculation.