Iraq vs Brazil: Who Claims World Cup Glory? | Polymarket Trade

These two markets assess the odds of entirely different nations winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, held in the United States. Iraq currently trades at 0% YES, reflecting extreme skepticism about their chances, while Brazil trades at 7% YES, indicating modest but notable confidence among market participants. Together, they illustrate how the same tournament can generate wildly different outcomes depending on which squad is under scrutiny. The 0% price on Iraq reflects two hard truths: Iraq has never qualified for a World Cup in the modern era, and their recent international performance ranks among the weakest in Asia. With just years to build a competitive squad and no recent competitive tournaments to benchmark improvement, traders have essentially assigned zero probability to an Iraq World Cup victory. Brazil, by contrast, arrives as a consistent powerhouse—a five-time champion with infrastructure, talent development systems, and a winning culture deeply embedded in the sport. The 7% YES price acknowledges Brazil's historical dominance while recognizing the volatility of tournament football; even favorites occasionally falter. The 700-basis-point spread between these markets reflects not just quality differences but fundamental divergence in national football readiness: one nation has played zero World Cup matches in its modern history, the other has competed in every tournament since 1958. These outcomes would be nearly impossible to correlate because they operate in fundamentally different probability spaces. Iraq would need to orchestrate one of sports' greatest upsets across six matches, while Brazil would need to perform to historical standard and navigate the knockout stage. There is no scenario where both win the tournament simultaneously. However, both could lose, and Iraq's near-zero odds mean that a Brazil victory is far more probable than Iraq reaching even the quarterfinals. If Brazil exits early, that probability mass does not migrate to Iraq; instead, it spreads across dozens of other nations with proven World Cup track records. Readers evaluating these markets should watch: (1) **Qualification status**—Iraq must first qualify from Asian qualifying rounds; any stumble there makes 0% a ceiling. (2) **Squad stability**—Brazil's strength depends on player fitness and transfers; injuries to key attackers would tighten the 7% odds. (3) **Regional tournaments**—Copa América performance offers early signals of squad form. (4) **Home-field advantage**—USA hosting may or may not benefit Brazil, but Iraq gains no geographic edge. (5) **Market migration**—if Iraq qualifies, odds may inch upward from 0%; conversely, a Brazil injury could contract the 7% ceiling. Both markets ultimately hinge on tournament unpredictability, but Iraq's path to victory is so improbable that the comparison mainly serves to highlight what these odds mean at football's highest stakes.