From Both Sides: Cheney & Pence's 2028 Paths | Polymarket Trade

Liz Cheney's potential Democratic presidential nomination and Mike Pence's potential Republican presidential nomination represent two extraordinary political crosscurrents for 2028. Both markets are currently priced at 1% YES, suggesting traders assign roughly equal probability to these historically unconventional paths. Cheney, a former Republican House member and January 6 Committee member, exploring a Democratic bid would represent a dramatic partisan realignment. Pence, the outgoing Vice President under Trump, seeking the Republican nomination would pit him directly against the man he served under. While both scenarios involve political outsiders challenging their respective party establishments, they emerge from opposite directions: Cheney moving leftward after Republican estrangement, Pence moving against Trump after a contentious departure. The identical 1% odds on both markets offer insight into how prediction market participants view both prospects. Such pricing typically reflects deep skepticism rooted in structural barriers—primary systems, party base alignment, and organizational disadvantages. For Cheney, the Democratic base has little historical reason to embrace a recent Republican defector, despite alignment on some issues like democracy defense. For Pence, the Republican base has shown overwhelming preference for Trump, making a primary challenge against him exceptionally difficult. The matching odds suggest traders see these barriers as roughly equivalent in severity, even though the political dynamics differ. A 1% price is not zero; it acknowledges paths exist, but only under extraordinary circumstances: unexpected developments that shift the political landscape, fatigue with leading contenders, or unforeseen withdrawals by frontrunners. These two outcomes could move in tandem or independently depending on broader political shifts. A major realignment that weakens Trump's hold on the Republican Party—perhaps a criminal conviction, health crisis, or devastating primary performance—might simultaneously strengthen Pence's path while raising Democratic skepticism of Cheney as too recent an arrival. Conversely, if Trump dominates the GOP primary unchallenged, Pence's chances fall sharply, but Cheney's Democratic bid might still fail on its own merits without any Trump-related catalyst. Democratic voters selecting their 2028 nominee operate on a different timeline and set of priorities than Republicans, so one outcome succeeding says little about the other. The markets are less about Cheney and Pence as individuals and more about whether each party's primary base can be moved dramatically outside its historical comfort zone. Watch early primary calendars, candidate endorsement patterns, and polling momentum for the frontrunners in each party. If either Cheney or Pence shows any meaningful polling traction (above 3–5%) entering Iowa or New Hampshire, their respective market prices would likely shift upward sharply. Pay attention to whether either candidate formally declares, as announcement and campaign infrastructure would substantially increase their perceived viability. Monitor Trump's legal situation closely, as unexpected developments could reshape Republican dynamics either for or against Pence. Track Democratic unity or fragmentation; a wide-open, fractured field might paradoxically improve Cheney's odds more than a consolidated establishment choice. The 2028 primary season ultimately will be defined by base enthusiasm and nominee selection, and both markets hinge on whether voters will make history-making choices about partisan identity.