Kostyantynivka, a strategically significant city in Ukraine's Donetsk region, has emerged as a focal point of military interest throughout the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. These three prediction markets track what traders worldwide expect about Russian capture of the city across three distinct timelines—April 30, June 30, and December 31, 2026. By examining the prices across these markets, you can observe how near-term and long-term expectations differ, revealing the market's assessment of conflict trajectory at different time horizons. Grouping these markets by deadline serves an analytical purpose: comparing probabilities across timeframes reveals patterns in how traders perceive the likely evolution of events. If April probabilities are significantly higher than June and December figures, it suggests expectations of rapid developments in the immediate term. If the pattern is reversed—with lower short-term odds and higher long-term odds—it indicates traders anticipate more gradual changes. These price differentials offer insights into expectations about both military dynamics and broader geopolitical factors. Several factors shape the probabilities in these markets. Ground-level military capabilities, supply chains for weapons and ammunition, weather and seasonal advantages, diplomatic activity, and international involvement all influence how traders assess likelihood at each deadline. Prediction market prices aggregate assessments from diverse participants, each weighing available information differently, resulting in prices that reflect broad market consensus at any given moment. Whether you're tracking geopolitical risk, analyzing conflict-related information flow, or studying how markets process multi-timeline scenarios, these three linked markets provide a structured way to understand expectations for Kostyantynivka. The progression of prices across dates often reveals how confidence and expectations evolve as new developments emerge.