Claude, Anthropic's AI assistant, serves millions of developer queries and business applications worldwide, making service availability a critical concern for its user base. Like any cloud-hosted API platform operating at scale, Claude periodically experiences outages or degraded performance. The duration and frequency of these events directly affect teams that depend on Claude for code generation, data analysis, creative writing, and research workflows. These three prediction markets quantify a single variable: the number of times Claude will experience a meaningful service disruption during May 2026. Rather than forecasting a simple yes-or-no outcome, they partition the month's downtime into three overlapping frequency bands—0 to 2 outages, 3 to 5 outages, or 6 to 8 outages—allowing traders to express nuanced expectations about infrastructure reliability. The probability distributions across these three markets tell a story about where consensus expectations cluster. A market with a much higher implied probability than its neighbors reveals where traders believe the most likely outcome lies; conversely, probabilities spread evenly across all three suggest higher uncertainty about the month's service profile. Traders studying these markets might also compare relative prices to estimate whether the platform's forecast expects outages to trend toward very few disruptions, moderately frequent ones, or a more volatile pattern. These predictions are powered by real-time trading activity on Polymarket Trade's transparent order book, reflecting the collective judgment of an open marketplace rather than a single institution's forecast.