US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Timeline | Polymarket Trade

These prediction markets track a critical question in international diplomacy: whether the United States and Iran will engage in formal talks by various dates in late April and May 2026. The six markets in this collection represent different resolution deadlines—April 27, 28, 29, 30, and May 15—allowing traders and observers to assess not just if a meeting will happen, but when. This temporal dimension adds significant nuance to market pricing. If you notice higher probability on an earlier deadline (say, April 27) compared to a later one (May 15), that suggests markets believe any diplomatic engagement would occur sooner rather than later. Conversely, lower odds on early dates paired with higher odds for later deadlines indicates skepticism about near-term talks but openness to longer-term diplomatic engagement. The spread between these probabilities reflects market sentiment about the speed and likelihood of diplomatic negotiations. As of today, US-Iran relations remain tense yet fluid, with intermittent diplomatic signals from both sides. Any announcement from official channels—statements from the State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry, or UN mediation efforts—often triggers rapid market repricing across all six markets. These markets serve as a real-time gauge of global sentiment on one of the most consequential geopolitical questions facing the world in the coming weeks. By comparing probabilities across the six deadline markets, you can infer where consensus expects diplomatic movement to occur, if at all, and how market participants are calibrating the timing of potential engagement.