As ChatGPT becomes increasingly central to productivity workflows across enterprises and individual users, service reliability has emerged as a critical consideration. This prediction event explores the anticipated frequency of ChatGPT service outages during May 2026, providing focused markets across four distinct scenarios. Each market addresses a specific outcome: the service experiencing zero or one total outage, exactly two outages, exactly three outages, or four or more disruptions throughout the month. These grouped scenarios allow forecast participants to articulate precise expectations about OpenAI's infrastructure stability and, more broadly, the operational dependability of large-scale AI systems. The probability estimates reflected in each market price represent the collective assessment of participants evaluating multiple factors: historical patterns of service interruptions, publicly disclosed infrastructure investments, demand pressures from accelerating user adoption, and seasonal variations in system load. By examining prices across these four outcomes, you can identify where market consensus concentrates—revealing whether forecasters anticipate largely stable performance, periodic disruptions, or more frequent interruptions. For organizations relying on ChatGPT across operations, these probability distributions offer quantifiable perspective on infrastructure risk and dependencies. The exhaustive structure of these four markets ensures that all possible May outage counts are represented, helping you assess which scenarios the market views as most probable versus tail-risk events.