Buenos Aires faces a weather milestone on April 28, and prediction markets have broken down the day's high temperature into four specific thresholds: 16°C, 14°C, 13°C, and 12°C. Each market asks a simple question about whether the high will reach that exact temperature or exceed it, allowing you to see at a glance what the collective market expects for that day's weather. This decomposition into multiple related markets reveals something interesting: by comparing the probabilities across thresholds, you can infer where the market truly expects the day's high to land. If the 16°C market shows strong probability while the 14°C market shows weaker odds, the market is signaling confidence that temperatures will reach the mid-15s. Conversely, if all four markets trade with similar low probabilities, that suggests the market expects the high to fall below 12°C. As you examine the prices below, pay attention to the probability gaps between consecutive thresholds—steep drops indicate where the market sees a natural boundary in temperature expectations, while gentler slopes reveal zones of uncertainty. These markets serve as a real-time aggregation of information from weather models, forecasters, and participants' collective judgment. They're useful tools for understanding how crowds forecast measurable outcomes and how information gets priced into probabilities. Whether you're a weather enthusiast, a trader, or simply curious about how markets process information, these four linked Buenos Aires temperature markets offer a practical window into probabilistic forecasting in action.