Amsterdam April 28 High Temperature Prediction | Polymarket Trade

Amsterdam's weather on April 28 has attracted significant market interest, with three closely related prediction markets focusing on the city's maximum daily temperature. These markets—asking whether the high will reach 12°C, stay at 11°C or below, or climb to 14°C—illustrate how prediction markets fragment outcomes into precise forecasts. Together, they function as a granular temperature prediction, allowing traders to express nuanced views about whether Amsterdam will experience a cool day (11°C or below), a mild day (around 12°C), or a warmer day (14°C or higher). By examining the current odds and trading volume across these three scenarios, you can observe how the market distributes confidence among competing temperature outcomes. Higher odds on a particular threshold suggest trader consensus around that level, while divergences between market prices sometimes signal where informed participants see opportunity or mispricing. The three markets work in concert: the 11°C-and-below contract captures downside risk, the 12°C market represents a middle scenario, and the 14°C contract reflects the warmer case. This granular structure reveals trader sentiment about specific meteorological conditions rather than broad temperature ranges. Weather forecasting involves substantial uncertainty, especially for precise temperature targets several days in advance, making these prediction markets particularly revealing of how traders weigh meteorological data and probability. Whether you're interested in European weather patterns, how markets handle overlapping but distinct outcomes, or simply curious about Amsterdam's expected conditions, these three markets offer a window into collective forecasting at a level of specificity rarely available in traditional weather services.