These prediction markets address a pivotal question in artificial intelligence: which company will develop the world's leading AI model by December 31, 2026? The five markets track OpenAI, Mistral, Moonshot, ByteDance, and Meituan—organizations with substantial AI research operations spanning North America, Europe, and Asia. As competition for AI leadership intensifies globally, these markets aggregate public expectation about which company's model will be recognized as the most capable by independent benchmarks or industry consensus. Each company enters the race from a different position. OpenAI currently leads with GPT-4 and established commercial deployment across thousands of applications. Mistral, the French startup, has positioned itself as a credible alternative emphasizing open-source principles and European independence. Moonshot operates in the Chinese market with models optimized for local users and regulatory requirements. ByteDance, controlling multiple consumer platforms with billions of users, possesses substantial computational resources and active AI deployment across its ecosystem. Meituan, best known for food delivery and services, has begun AI development targeting operational efficiency and recommendation systems. When examining the prices below, consider several factors shaping outcomes: major research breakthroughs, successful model scaling at lower cost, evolving regulatory environments, funding availability, and real-world adoption metrics across different markets. These markets do not predict financial returns or market adoption volume, but rather which organization's model will achieve #1 status by year-end. Market prices reflect aggregate participant assessment—higher prices indicate stronger collective confidence, lower prices suggest skepticism. As 2026 progresses, new model releases, benchmark results, research publications, and competitive announcements will shift these probabilities.