As geopolitical tensions around Iran remain a focal point of international diplomacy in 2026, these three prediction markets track whether key members of the Trump administration will have direct diplomatic meetings with Iranian officials by the end of May. The group includes markets on Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and J.D. Vance—three prominent figures within the current administration who have varying roles in foreign policy and diplomatic outreach. These markets are grouped together because they all measure the same underlying question about U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement in the coming months, but track different individuals who might serve as negotiators or intermediaries. The prices below reflect the market's current assessment of each official's likelihood of having a diplomatic meeting with Iran. Markets on prediction platforms like Polymarket aggregate the views of many participants and tend to accurately estimate probabilities across a wide range of events. When comparing the three prices, note that they may differ significantly depending on each official's perceived diplomatic role, access, and the market's view of their individual likelihood of meeting with Iranian counterparts. As May progresses, watch for price movements that could signal new developments in U.S.-Iran relations. If one or more officials secure meetings earlier in the month, that market will typically resolve positively and cease trading. Conversely, if diplomatic efforts stall or talks are delayed, prices may stabilize lower as traders adjust their probability estimates. The relative odds between the three officials can also provide insight into market sentiment about which channels for diplomacy are most likely to be pursued.