OpenAI's upcoming model release represents a significant moment in artificial intelligence development. This page groups three related prediction markets that focus on whether the next model released by OpenAI will debut at specific benchmark thresholds: 1480, 1500, and 1520 points. These markets allow participants to track community consensus on the likely performance level of OpenAI's next generation model across a range of meaningful score levels. The grouping of these three markets provides insight into how the prediction community assesses different performance scenarios for the upcoming release. Reading the prices on this page offers several valuable insights. First, observe the spread between the three markets—the difference in implied probabilities at each threshold tells you where the community concentrates its conviction about the model's likely debut performance. If the 1500-threshold market is trading significantly higher than the 1520-threshold market, for example, that signals broad agreement that the model will likely exceed 1500 but represents meaningful uncertainty about whether it will reach 1520. Second, compare these prices to your own assessment of what benchmark score makes sense for the next release, given OpenAI's historical development trajectory and the current state of AI capabilities. Pay attention to how quickly prices move over time—sharp shifts can indicate new public information about the timeline or capabilities of the upcoming model, or changes in community expectations. Finally, consider that these three markets are closely related but distinct. A participant might believe the model will score above 1500 but be uncertain whether it reaches 1520—in which case they might focus on the 1500-threshold market while avoiding the 1520 market. Together, these markets create a ladder of performance expectations that illuminates community thinking about a major upcoming AI development.