xAI, the artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk, is preparing to release its next large language model. The three prediction markets grouped here focus on a single underlying question: what performance level will this new model achieve on standard benchmark assessments when it launches? Rather than a simple binary outcome, these related markets present three graduated performance thresholds—1440, 1460, and 1480 points—giving participants the ability to express more differentiated expectations about where the model's final capability will fall on the performance spectrum. This tiered structure offers analytical insight: the relative pricing across the three markets reveals where market participants collectively expect the model to perform. If the lowest threshold (1440) commands a significantly higher market price than the highest (1480), it signals broad confidence in achieving basic capability benchmarks but greater uncertainty about reaching higher performance levels. If all three markets trade within a narrow price band, it suggests market consensus coalescing around a specific performance window. As you review the prices below, consider what each threshold represents in practical terms, and use the price relationships between markets as a window into aggregate expectations regarding where xAI's next model will ultimately score on launch.