Warsaw's weather forecast for May 5 is now reflected in a set of prediction markets that collectively measure how the crowd anticipates the day's highest temperature. These four related markets—tracking outcomes of 20°C or below, 21°C, 22°C, and 24°C—all converge on the same underlying event but partition the possible temperature range into distinct bands. By examining how traders price each outcome, you can extract the collective expectation for the day ahead. When reading these prices side by side, several patterns become meaningful. If prices for consecutive outcomes move in tandem, it signals confidence in a particular temperature band. If prices spike for one specific outcome while others remain relatively flat, it may indicate a focal point—a temperature traders particularly expect. The spacing between prices also reveals market uncertainty: when probabilities cluster tightly in one range, expect sharper drops elsewhere. Conversely, when probabilities are distributed across multiple outcomes, traders signal genuine disagreement about the precise temperature. These markets represent real capital from participants who monitor weather forecasts, historical data, and seasonal patterns. The prices you see reflect a live consensus forecast. As May 5 approaches, prices will drift as weather models update and forecasts sharpen. Earlier uncertainty yields to convergence. By tracking how prices evolve over the coming days, you'll witness the crowd's confidence increasing as the event nears—or shifting if new meteorological data emerges. Whether you're interested in forecast accuracy, crowd behavior, or simply want to see how traders expect conditions in Warsaw that day, these markets offer a direct window into collective expectations.