Wuhan Temperature Forecast May 5 | Polymarket Trade

These three prediction markets offer a granular view of expected weather outcomes for Wuhan on May 5, 2026. Rather than a single binary outcome, this event-based grouping covers three specific temperature thresholds—23°C or below, 24°C, and 25°C—allowing participants to express differentiated views on where the maximum temperature will land. Together, they form a natural spectrum reflecting the range of possible forecasts for that day. The grouping makes sense because all three markets reference the same underlying weather event and serve complementary roles in price discovery. The key insight when reading these prices is that they're interconnected: the probability assigned to each outcome, combined with any outcome above 25°C, should sum to roughly 100%, accounting for market spreads and trading friction. By observing how prices spread across these three related outcomes, you can gauge market consensus on where temperatures are expected to fall and the degree of uncertainty among traders. When you compare these prices to meteorological forecasts, historical temperature patterns for Wuhan in early May, and current weather models, you'll develop a sense for what the collective market view represents and how it aligns with official predictions. These prediction markets distill the judgment of many participants into real-time prices, functioning as a live aggregation of opinion and forward-looking analysis—useful alongside traditional weather services for understanding what conditions traders expect.