Jakarta Temperature Predictions for May 5 | Polymarket Trade

On May 5, Jakarta's weather will test how well prediction markets capture temperature extremes in real time. This event page aggregates three outcome scenarios for the day's highest temperature, revealing the crowd's probabilistic forecast across the range of possibilities. The first market asks whether the peak will reach exactly 36°C—a warm but not extreme reading for late May in Jakarta. The second market captures 37°C or higher, representing a significant heat event. The third extends downward to 27°C or below, representing a notably cooler day. Together, these three markets are not redundant; they cover overlapping ranges and let forecasters express nuanced beliefs about where the temperature distribution will actually land. When you compare prices across all three markets, you are examining the collective estimate of where the crowd believes Jakarta's maximum temperature will be—and the price gaps reveal where uncertainty concentrates. A high price on the 37°C-or-above market combined with a low price on the sub-27°C market signals strong confidence in heat, while balanced prices suggest forecasters expect a more moderate outcome. These market prices update continuously as new information emerges, from weather model runs to satellite data, making them a dynamic window into crowd intelligence on a straightforward but important meteorological question.