Strait of Hormuz May 11-17 Ship Transits | Polymarket Trade

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, with approximately one-fifth of all globally traded oil passing through its narrow waters annually. The prediction markets for the week of May 11–17 track ship transit volumes across this strategic strait, serving as a real-time barometer for regional geopolitical stability and global energy security. These three interconnected markets divide possible outcomes into distinct ranges that together provide a complete picture of what shipping patterns to expect. The 60–79 ships scenario reflects normal or elevated traffic patterns consistent with regional stability or manageable tensions. The 40–59 ships range captures a significant slowdown, suggesting heightened geopolitical concerns or operational disruptions affecting major shipping corridors. The fewer-than-20 ships outcome represents a severe bottleneck, implying major conflict, sanctions escalation, or critical infrastructure damage. By examining how probabilities distribute across these three markets, readers can extract nuanced signals about market expectations for regional stability, energy prices, and global trade flows during this period. The relative weight of probabilities across the ranges illuminates the degree of market consensus—if one outcome dominates, traders may be converging on a unified forecast; if probabilities remain balanced, the market perceives genuine uncertainty about conditions ahead. As geopolitical developments unfold and shipping data emerges, these prediction markets aggregate real-time forecasts from informed traders worldwide, creating a dynamic window into how participants assess the intersection of geopolitics, energy security, and commerce. Whether monitoring for business planning, investment analysis, or geopolitical research, tracking price movements across these three markets offers a sophisticated measure of collective expectations for one of the global economy's most vital passages.