On May 18, Shanghai's weather will become known, and three prediction markets below collectively reveal how traders worldwide assess the probability of different temperature outcomes. These markets are grouped together because they partition the temperature space: one asks whether the high will stay at 21°C or below, another captures the specific 22°C outcome, and a third indicates whether heat will reach 31°C or higher. By reading the three prices in tandem, you gain a complete picture of the probability distribution. Shanghai's climate in May typically trends warm, so cool-scenario markets often trade lower in price—indicating lower perceived probability—while warm thresholds attract increased buying pressure. The three-market structure lets you see where consensus clusters. If cool trades at 30%, moderate at 15%, and hot at 45%, the market is saying roughly 10% of probability sits between 22°C and 31°C, with the remainder above. These markets are probability instruments where traders reveal their forecasts through price. As meteorological forecasts shift and new weather data emerges, prices update to reflect fresh trader expectations—often moving faster than traditional forecast cycles. Reading all three markets together gives you a granular, real-time view of temperature expectations for May 18 in Shanghai, showing not just which outcome traders favor, but how confident they are relative to competing scenarios.