Mexico City High Temperature, May 18 | Polymarket Trade

On May 18, Mexico City's weather will attract attention from those tracking meteorological conditions and prediction market dynamics. This event aggregates three related markets focused on the city's highest temperature on that specific date. Rather than predicting a single binary outcome, these markets zero in on distinct temperature points: whether the high will be 17°C or below, exactly 18°C, or exactly 19°C. By comparing the probabilities assigned to each outcome, readers can gauge the collective confidence of market participants regarding these temperature scenarios. The differences in probability across these markets reveal valuable information—if the 18°C market carries significantly higher odds than adjacent outcomes, it suggests convergence of belief around that specific temperature. More dispersed probabilities indicate greater uncertainty about the precise high. These markets function as an aggregation of all available information: weather models, recent atmospheric data, historical patterns, and expert forecasts all influence the prices displayed below. As May 18 approaches, you may observe these probabilities shift as fresh meteorological data emerges, providing a real-time window into how the market reassesses temperature expectations. For those interested in meteorology, market mechanics, or how communities use prediction markets to express confidence in specific scenarios, this event demonstrates both how forecasters think about temperature outcomes and how markets translate that uncertainty into comparable probabilities.