US Iran Ceasefire Extension Timeline | Polymarket Trade

Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic negotiations have created sustained market interest in predicting the timing of any formal announcement regarding a new agreement or ceasefire extension. These three prediction markets address the same central question—whether the United States will announce a new Iran agreement or ceasefire extension—but with three distinct deadline dates: May 31, June 7, and June 30. This structure reflects how diplomatic processes typically unfold: early announcements are less likely than those given slightly more negotiating time, and even more possible as additional weeks pass. By comparing these three markets side by side, you can observe how the probability of an announcement shifts across different time horizons, revealing what the market collectively expects about the pace and trajectory of US-Iran negotiations. The spread between these markets is particularly informative. If the May 31 market trades significantly lower than the June 7 market, it suggests the consensus view is that a quick breakthrough is possible but unlikely—most announcements, if they happen, will likely come later. Conversely, if probabilities remain relatively flat across all three dates, the market is signaling genuine uncertainty about timing. A sharp probability increase between June 7 and June 30 could indicate traders see negotiations progressing but expect the formal announcement to slip beyond early June, perhaps due to domestic political considerations or additional diplomatic rounds. These markets are grouped because they capture the same underlying geopolitical event with granular time resolution. Understanding this event's significance requires tracking how each market moves in response to real-world developments—a negotiation breakthrough, official statements from either government, sanctions decisions, or other policy announcements all provide signals about the likelihood and timing of a US-Iran agreement. Whether you're interested in geopolitical forecasting, understanding how diplomatic timelines develop, or observing how prediction markets price major international events, these three markets together provide a complete picture of market expectations around this critical negotiation.