2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals Predictions | Polymarket Trade
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will expand to 48 teams for the first time, spreading the tournament across North America and reshaping competitive dynamics. The four markets displayed below track probability forecasts for Spain, Argentina, France, and Colombia reaching the tournament semifinals—representing a cross-section of European and South American football powers with distinct paths to advancement. Spain enters with technical excellence and a deep pool of attacking talent, while Argentina carries momentum as the reigning world champion and Copa América titleholder. France defends its 2022 title despite natural squad evolution, maintaining strong midfield and defensive infrastructure. Colombia represents South American consistency outside Brazil and Argentina, with established tournament experience and growing depth in elite player development. These markets aggregate investor expectations about which nations will navigate the expanded group stage and knockout rounds most effectively. When examining the probabilities displayed, note that each percentage reflects collective forecasting about squad composition, coaching stability, injury trajectory, and the structural effects of a 48-team format—which may alter traditional group-stage dynamics and create different advancement paths than previous tournaments. The relative odds across these four markets offer insight into how markets differentiate between European consistency and South American tournament experience, and how favoritism for prior success compares to assessments of current squad depth. Following these probabilities provides a data-driven perspective on which nations the forecasting community expects to reach football's final four.