US-Iran Agreement Negotiations 2026 | Polymarket Trade

The potential for a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran represents one of the most significant geopolitical questions facing markets and policymakers in 2026. This event aggregator brings together three related prediction markets that track the probability of such an agreement across different timeline scenarios: by June 22, 2026, by June 30, 2026, and by July 31, 2026. These markets are grouped together because they measure the same underlying event—a formal agreement between the two countries—but disaggregated across distinct deadline dates. This structure reveals important information about market expectations regarding timing. The comparative odds across these three dates indicate whether participants believe a deal is imminent, requires extended negotiations, or remains unlikely regardless of timeframe. A significant gap between near-term and far-term probabilities might suggest that market participants see a breakthrough as possible but believe it requires time for diplomatic channels to resolve outstanding issues. Conversely, similar pricing across all three scenarios would indicate confidence in either a near-term outcome or persistent skepticism about agreement prospects. Relevant signals include official statements from US and Iranian representatives, UN involvement, sanctions discussions, and reports on nuclear program negotiations. By presenting these three markets side by side, this aggregator lets you compare real-time probability estimates and track how new developments shift expectations about both the likelihood and timing of a potential agreement.