Claude Fable 5 US Restoration Timeline | Polymarket Trade

Claude Fable 5, Anthropic's latest AI model variant, became unavailable to US customers, creating uncertainty about when market access will resume. This event aggregates five prediction markets that collectively forecast restoration timelines. By tracking multiple decision points—July 10, July 17, July 31, August 31, and December 31—these markets reveal the consensus view on when restoration might occur across different time horizons. The nested structure of these markets is particularly informative: disparities between the July 10 and July 31 probabilities indicate when market participants expect movement to occur. A 20% July 10 forecast paired with a 50% July 31 forecast suggests most of the anticipated resolution falls within that three-week window. This cascading timeline helps distinguish between optimistic early-restoration scenarios and more conservative mid-to-late-summer expectations, or extended timelines into late 2026. Readers monitoring these markets should pay attention to how probabilities shift across the different time horizons, as repricing at any one market often signals broader sentiment changes. External catalysts—regulatory developments, Anthropic announcements, or technical updates—typically trigger synchronized repricing across all five markets. The trading activity and liquidity on these markets reflect genuine interest and confidence in the forecasting process. Additionally, the relative probability relationships across dates offer insights into market participants' expectations about the pace and likelihood of restoration at each interval. Whether you're following product availability developments, regulatory outcomes, or the prediction markets' ability to forecast technology industry decisions, this bundled view provides granular insight into consensus sentiment across a compressed timeline.