Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Forecast | Polymarket Trade

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is set to open in theaters this weekend, and prediction markets are now aggregating multiple outcomes to help track what audiences and industry analysts expect from the film's domestic opening weekend performance. The five linked markets below represent different projected box office ranges for the film's first weekend, spanning from under $200 million through $280 million and above. These markets are grouped together because they all reference the same underlying event—the opening weekend box office total—and together they create a price discovery mechanism that reflects the collective probability assessments of market participants. By observing which ranges are trading at higher or lower prices, you can see where the market's consensus leans about the film's commercial appeal and audience interest. A market trading at a higher price suggests participants view that outcome as more likely; lower prices indicate less confidence in that particular range. The price differences across these markets can also reveal market uncertainty: if all ranges trade at similar levels, it signals genuine unpredictability about the outcome, whereas if one range commands significantly higher prices, that reflects a concentrated institutional or analytical view. Opening weekend box office performance is a key metric in the film industry, influencing both immediate financial outcomes and longer-term success signals. These markets tap into the knowledge of participants who monitor industry trends, comparable releases, and cultural factors that shape opening weekend results. Whether you're tracking the market's expectations for commercial performance, studying how prediction markets quantify film industry forecasts, or simply interested in price discovery mechanisms, the linked markets below offer real-time transparency into how participants collectively assess different outcome probabilities.