2026 US-Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations | Polymarket Trade

Nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran represent one of the most consequential geopolitical issues of 2026. If a new agreement is reached, its specific terms will determine the trajectory of US-Iran relations, global energy markets, and regional stability for years to come. The five prediction markets in this collection focus on the most substantive provisions likely to be central to any deal: uranium enrichment restrictions, dilution requirements, reconstruction funding, and implementation timelines. These markets are grouped together because they represent the core technical and financial pillars of potential negotiation outcomes. Uranium enrichment capacity is the central concern—whether Iran agrees to cap its enrichment at any level, or to a specific threshold of 5% or lower, directly affects concerns about proliferation risks and international security. A moratorium on enrichment for one or more years would add a temporal dimension, freezing Iran's technical capabilities during a defined implementation period. Provisions for uranium dilution would further constrain Iran's ability to accumulate enriched fissile material. Reconstruction funding, meanwhile, reflects the economic incentives that could make an agreement acceptable to Iran, particularly as sanctions relief alone may not address the country's broader infrastructure and development needs. The prices you see below represent a collective assessment of the probability that each provision will be included in a finalized agreement by the end of 2026. Higher prices indicate greater confidence that a provision will be part of the deal; lower prices suggest skepticism about its inclusion. By observing how these prices move together or diverge over time, you can identify which provisions are viewed as interconnected—likely to rise and fall as a package—and which are viewed as potential trade-offs or negotiation points where inclusion of one might affect the probability of another. This collection is designed for researchers, policy analysts, diplomats, and anyone tracking the negotiations closely. The markets offer a real-time signal of expert and informed-public expectations about the shape of a potential agreement, filtered through price discovery rather than political rhetoric or diplomatic positioning.