US-Iran Ceasefire Prediction Markets | Polymarket Trade

Tensions between the United States and Iran remain a focal point of geopolitical attention, with market participants worldwide closely monitoring the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Below you'll find three prediction markets that track the likelihood of an effective ceasefire agreement across three distinct timeframes: by July 31, by August 14, and by August 31, 2026. These markets are grouped together because they measure the same underlying event—a cessation of hostilities—but at progressively later target dates, allowing you to compare market expectations across different resolution windows. When analyzing the prices, keep in mind that earlier deadlines typically require faster diplomatic consensus and often trade at lower odds, while later deadlines provide more negotiating time and may show higher probability. Price differences across the three markets reveal how market participants are weighing both the urgency of reaching agreement and the feasibility of each timeframe. If the market prices a July 31 ceasefire at 20% odds but an August 31 ceasefire at 60%, that spread tells you participants believe a deal is possible but unlikely in the compressed timeframe. These markets are valuable for anyone tracking US-Iran relations—from policy analysts to investors managing geopolitical exposure. The real-time prices reflect collective intelligence from prediction market participants evaluating news, diplomatic developments, historical patterns, and expert commentary. By comparing positions across all three timeframes, you gain a more granular picture of when—or whether—meaningful de-escalation might occur and how market sentiment shifts as each deadline approaches.