2026 Berlin State Elections | Polymarket Trade
On February 23, 2026, voters in Berlin will elect members of the state parliament (Abgeordnetenhaus), with results determining both party representation and potential coalition pathways for government formation. This page aggregates prediction markets for the five parties expected to be the largest contenders: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Alternative for Germany (AfD), Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens (Grüne), and the Left (Linke). These parties have historically dominated Berlin politics and are anticipated to remain central to the 2026 outcome. The markets below track probability estimates for which party will win the most seats—a critical metric for coalition negotiations, as the plurality leader typically holds significant leverage in government formation discussions. As election day approaches, market prices continuously update to reflect polling trends, campaign developments, and political analysis from German media and observers. By comparing prices across these five markets, you can observe how market participants are weighting each party's electoral prospects relative to the others. Price movements often signal shifts in political momentum or changing confidence in a party's performance. Understanding these relative expectations provides insight into the competitive landscape and helps observers gauge which coalitions might emerge viable.