About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO).
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowMature market (97d)
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$2K
Liquidity$133K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in9mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.6% → 1.1%
271 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets19
AI Brief
Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end 2026 carries only 4% YES—a moonshot scenario the market considers remote, likely because it would require a 4-5x move in under 9 months with no catalysts visible.