About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (94% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1566.67 (+1567%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability6.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.4%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 99 days
- Price moved -0.4pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$28K
Liquidity$65K
Current Probability6%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.9% → 2.1%
268 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets21
AI Brief
Bitcoin crashing to $15,000 by year-end is a 6% tail-risk tail representing a catastrophic 76% bear case that markets price as highly unlikely barring systemic collapse. This is pure catastrophic insurance, not a base case.