Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (100% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$-100.00 (-100%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability0.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$104K
Liquidity$102K
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 51.9% → 21.7%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets2
AI Brief
Richard Grenell has no institutional pathway to Venezuelan leadership and markets assign 0% probability, treating this as impossible given Maduro's current control and Grenell's role as a Trump envoy rather than a viable successor. The near-total reject reflects the implausibility of regime change mechanics by year-end.