Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$238
Liquidity$12K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 9.8% → 4.8%
245 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets14
AI Brief
The market assigns only 4% odds to rates climbing to 4.5% or higher by end-2026, with recent 4.2% decline in YES price showing traders have grown even more confident in rate cuts ahead. Current consensus is firmly toward easing, not tightening, barring a significant inflation spike. PCE trends and Fed rhetoric will determine whether this conviction holds through year-end.