Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?

The market questions whether the Fed's upper bound on the target federal funds rate will be exactly 2.0% by year-end 2026; the overwhelming 99% NO probability reflects market conviction that rates will remain elevated above this level through December. Key drivers include inflation persistence and Fed policy stance under the Trump administration, with the market pricing in sustained restrictive policy. Watch Fed meetings and CPI/jobs data for catalysts to shift probabilities.