About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1900.00 (+1900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability5.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 61 days
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$3K
Liquidity$60K
Current Probability5%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.2% → 1.4%
268 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets21
AI Brief
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Priced at 4 percent yes, this represents a black-swan scenario requiring 70+ percent crash over nine months. Market consensus is structural crypto adoption and macro risk environment do not support such a collapse. Catalyst would be existential financial system crisis or major protocol failure.