About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (97% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$3233.33 (+3233%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability3.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 61 days
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$4K
Liquidity$76K
Current Probability3%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.5% → 1.5%
268 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets21
AI Brief
A Bitcoin crash below $5K by year-end 2026 trades at just 3% probability, correctly pricing this as a catastrophic tail scenario requiring a 90%+ decline from current levels. The $74K liquidity pool shows genuine hedging demand, though the market overwhelmingly expects BTC to remain well above this floor through 2026. This is pure disaster insurance, not a directional view.