About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 46% YES. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$117.39 (+117%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability46.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 61 days
- Price moved -1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$39K
Liquidity$20K
Current Probability46%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.8% → 1.2%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
The UK market is nearly split at 46% YES/54% NO on whether no new Prime Minister takes office in 2026, suggesting near-complete uncertainty over Starmer's tenure or any snap election outcomes. The close odds indicate traders see plausible paths to both incumbent retention and mid-term replacement.