About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Informed flow observed.
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 46 days
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$8K
Liquidity$121K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in9mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.4% → 1.5%
271 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets19
AI Brief
Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by year-end 2026 carries just 2% implied probability, marking an extreme bull-case scenario requiring 10x returns in 9 months. The market treats this as fantasy territory, with only contrarian bets backing such astronomical upside.
