About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO).
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice stable for 46 days
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$6K
Liquidity$131K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in9mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.7% → 1.2%
271 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets19
AI Brief
Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 by end-2026 carries 2% tail-risk pricing, equivalent to the $500,000 strike and reflecting pure lottery-ticket positioning. The market assigns near-zero credence to a 30x moonshot despite the longest bull thesis narratives.
