Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 44% YES. Momentum is strong down. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$127.27 (+127%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability44.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong down24h Price Change: -13.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -13.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong down
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved down to 41.8% from 53.3% baseline — 22% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$71K
Liquidity$67K
Current Probability44%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 9.3% → 4.6%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
Mojtaba Khamenei as head of state by year-end 2026 trades at 57% odds—a genuine coin-flip reflecting deep uncertainty over Iranian succession dynamics and Khamenei Sr.'s health status. The recent 3.3% decline suggests news compression of regime-change odds following the April 6 date boundary.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3