About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 55% YES. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$81.82 (+82%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability55.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +13.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price jumped +13.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$109K
Liquidity$80K
Current Probability55%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 13.1% → 6.2%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Iran leadership transition rates 50-50 odds by December, balancing uncertainty around succession planning or regime instability against structural continuity; positive overnight shift suggests increased conviction on change.
