Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (91% NO). Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1011.11 (+1011%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability9.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +2.3%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +2.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
- Sentiment divergence: active YES-buying pressure
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$585K
Liquidity$54K
Current Probability9%
Resolves in7d
Active tradingVol: 21.4% → 10.7%
7d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
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AI Brief
The market prices Iran-Israel conflict resolution at just 7%, reflecting near-zero expectations for de-escalation by April 15 despite recent tensions. Recent volatility (+1.7% in 24h) suggests some pricing of diplomatic developments, but the massive liquidity cushion ($126K on 7% odds) indicates strong consensus against peace talks. Catalyst: any Gaza ceasefire announcement or direct US-Iran negotiations would shift this sharply.