About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 89% NO. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$733.33 (+733%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability12.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -2.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price dropped -2.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$45K
Liquidity$30K
Current Probability12%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 42.5% → 17.9%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
US military draft authorization carries 11% probability by year-end, pricing conscription as tail-risk even amid geopolitical tensions. The long timeframe and $21k liquidity suggest most traders view this as unlikely absent a major shock. Catalyst would require significant escalation or protracted military commitment.