About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 73% NO. Momentum is falling. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$257.14 (+257%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability28.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: +1.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$53K
Liquidity$59K
Current Probability28%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 7.0% → 3.7%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Houthi disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has the market at 29% by April 30, with the strait remaining open the base case despite ongoing attacks. The position strengthened 6% in 24 hours, signaling either new escalation or trader shift toward closure risk. With only 24 days to resolution, any major attack on shipping or regional escalation could move this sharply.