Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 88% NO.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$669.23 (+669%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability13.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: coolingLiquidity: CMixed flowPrice stable for 19 days
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$86
Liquidity$39K
Current Probability13%
Resolves in3mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
112 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
The market prices in extremely low odds of a July Fed rate cut, with the 13% YES probability reflecting consensus that the central bank will hold rates steady or tighten further rather than ease policy. Key drivers are inflation trajectory and labor market data over the next three months, with the June FOMC meeting and related economic releases serving as the nearest catalyst to shift market expectations.