Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans YES at 81%.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$23.46 (+23%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability81.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: coolingLiquidity: CMixed flowPrice stable for 19 days
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$576
Liquidity$30K
Current Probability81%
Resolves in3mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
112 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets4
AI Brief
The 81% probability on a rate hold by July 2026 is the clearest market view, reflecting consensus that the Fed will maintain its current 4.25-4.50% target range through the summer. This positioning dominates the related hike and cut markets, making it the central expectation for near-term policy.