Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (96% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$2400.00 (+2400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability4.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (278d)
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$20K
Liquidity$477K
Current Probability4%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.7% → 1.2%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Pete Buttigieg carries just 4% odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination despite serving as Transportation Secretary, reflecting trader belief that his relatively junior position and limited political capital leave him outmatched by governors and senators in a crowded primary field. His nomination path would require major frontrunner withdrawals or a dramatic shift in Democratic primary dynamics.