Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.2%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 278 days
- Price moved +0.2pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$71K
Liquidity$1.1M
Current Probability1%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.2% → 1.8%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets39
AI Brief
Michelle Obama's 1% odds are effectively insurance pricing; almost no trader expects her to enter the race, let alone secure the Democratic nomination. The enormous liquidity ($1.1M) on a 1% market suggests this is pure tail-hedge buying rather than genuine conviction of her candidacy.