Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 278 days
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$62K
Liquidity$307K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.9% → 2.1%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Mark Kelly carries only 2% odds for the 2028 Democratic nomination, indicating the market doubts his viability despite his Senate seat, with the probability reflecting longer-shot candidates and establishment consolidation expectations.