Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: risingLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (278d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$536K
Liquidity$1.6M
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Barack Obama has definitively stated he won't return to electoral politics, and at 1% the market is essentially pricing in a surprise reconsideration or black-swan intervention. The consensus is a near-complete rejection of his nomination bid for 2028, with the Democratic field already coalescing around younger candidates.